Evaluation of the effect of border closure on COVID-19 incidence rates across nine African countries: an interrupted time series study

Abstract Background Border closure is one of the policy changes implemented to mitigate against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We evaluated effect border on incidence rate COVID-19 across nine African countries. Methods An interrupted time series analysis was used assess rates in Egypt, Tunisia, Democratic Republic Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa (SA). Data were collected between 14 February 19 July 2020 from online data repositories. The linear trend magnitude change using itsa function with ordinary least-squares regression Stata a 7-d deferred interruption point, which allows period diffusion post-border closure. Results Overall, countries recorded an increase after However, when compared matched control groups, SA, Egypt Kenya showed higher trend. In contrast, DRC Tunisia lower their controls. Conclusions implementation closures within had minimal COVID-19. inclusion other measures such as enhanced testing capacity improved surveillance activities will reveal effectiveness measures.